These counties will help tell the story of how either former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris will become the next president.
In the 2020 presidential election, the country was stretched ideologically and demographically. From 2012 to 2016, more than 200 counties flipped from former President Barack Obama to former President Donald Trump. In 2020,Biden won by bigger margins in cities, and Trump drove up turnout and margins in rural areas.
But there’s no guarantee that will happen again, especially as Trump has made efforts to peel off portions of traditionally Democratic groups, like young men, young Black men and working-class Latinos. Below is a guide to the counties to keep an eye on in each of the seven swing states as returns roll in on election night and in the days afterward. These counties will help explain why the next president won. , which are among the highest educated, wealthiest and most populated counties in the state. Though they voted overwhelmingly for Biden in 2020, Trump can’t ignore them because he’s expected to get a significant share of votes from them, too.
. That has meant a huge shift in its politics in favor of Democrats. In 2004, Republican George W. Bush won it with 51%. By 2008, Obama got 57% of the vote. Biden in 2020 won it with 63%. His margin of victory — 167,000 — is 25,000 more than all of the votes Bush got in the county in 2000. Biden saw a 100,000-vote shift in his favor in the state; 60% of it came from this county.
Just south of Atlanta, this will be a good test of Harris’ ability to turn out Black voters. It’s 73% Black, 15% Latino and is the sixth-most populated county in the state.So much attention is paid to the Atlanta metro area because of its size and growth, but watch the margins in places like Chatham, home to Savannah. It’s among the counties Biden won in 2020 by more than Clinton did in 2016. Some notable others: Muscogee , Richmond , Bibb , Baldwin.
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