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Control of the House is again up for grabs in this year’s elections. The fight will be fierce and expensive, but it will also take place on the narrowest of playing fields.
In the vast majority of these congressional districts, the Democratic or Republican candidate for president — and almost always the prevailing congressional candidate — win by landslide margins. In 2020, for example, Biden carried 167 congressional districts by 15 or more percentage points, and Donald Trump carried another 149 districts by the same margin. These districts together make up a whopping 73 percent of all current House seats.
States where Republicans had unchecked control of the redistricting process are particularly stark when it comes to competition. GOP-controlled states drew 184 of the districts that will be used in this year’s election — far more than any other map drawer. But only five are toss-ups, with another two districts, both held by a Democrat, were rated as lean Democratic.
This lack of competition is remarkable. The burgeoning South is home to some of this cycle’s most competitive presidential and Senate battlegrounds. Indeed, the fastest growing states of the South have an abundance of the type of increasingly purple suburbs that anchor competitive congressional districts elsewhere in the country.of North Carolina voters, for example, are suburbanites.
But with few checks on partisan abuses, the path to a House majority now runs largely through districts drawn by commissions, courts, and divided governments, or in states with strong legally enforceable map drawing rules.
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