Europe and China are outpacing the U.S. in shoring up their labor markets amid the historic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, according to economists.
Chief Economist Holger Schmieding, Senior Economist Kallum Pickering and European Economist Florian Hense said that one of the lessons learned from the global financial crisis in 2008 was that targeted support for under- or unemployment can limit the number of dismissals, even in the event of a sharp economic downturn.
In the past couple of weeks, Germany, the U.K., France and others have deployed some form of employment subsidy policy. In the U.K., for instance, companiesHowever, Berenberg economists characterized the U.S. policy response, aimed at encouraging "labor hoarding" through such initiatives as tax credits to firms which retain employees, as "less generous."
However, the more aggressive employment subsidies across Europe, Berenberg projected, will see euro zone unemployment rising from 7.4% to a peak of 10.0% this fall, while the U.S. is expected to surge from 3.5% in February to 11.6% in the second quarter before beginning a modest decline. But in China, the original epicenter of the outbreak, hiring has begun to steadily pick up as new cases of the virus have supposedly slowed to a trickle, with industrial production reopening across the country, in contrast to the exponential growth seen elsewhere in the world.
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