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Countering the shortage requires a"once-in-a-generation response," the Rosen Consulting Group said in the report. Inadequate home construction over the past 20 years has left the market with an underbuilding gap of at least 5.5 million homes, it said. Contractors built 1.23 million new homes each year on average from 2001 to 2020. That's down from the average annual pace of 1.5 million new homes from 1968 to 2000.
Accounting for other dynamics in the housing market paints an even bleaker picture. Once losses of existing homes and underproduction relative to household formation are measured, the total supply-demand gap over the last two decades swells to 6.8 million units, according to the report. The deficit has stripped Americans of affordable homeownership, and the likely obsolescence of available homes in coming years risks exacerbating the already dire situation.
Builders can still solve the problem, but the report suggests it will take a herculean effort over the next decade. Residential construction would need to accelerate to an annual pace of more than 2 million units per year. That rate would represent a 60% jump from the annual pace of roughly 1.3 million units in 2020.
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