Donald Trump has been at the center stage of American politics for roughly a decade now.
FILE - Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump walks to the podium at a campaign event Tuesday, June 18, 2024, in Racine, Wis.
“If he gets his ass kicked, they're going to have a huge reckoning, where I think realignment is probably more likely than not,” Burgat said. “But if he wins, or even keeps it incredibly close, then they're going to make the calculation they've made for the last eight years that the policies are correct, just the messenger was perhaps a bit wrong.
But Trump’s support among suburban voters fell between his 2016 victory and 2020 loss. That was really why Trump lost in 2020, McKee said.When he lost in 2020, he did that with an 11-point disadvantage among suburban voters.Burgat said the 2024 election could come down to Trump’s ability to regain the suburban vote.
Voters in six states have already weighed in on abortion amendments. And each time, the side favoring access to abortion prevailed. He’s still focused on immigration and border security. He’s still focused on tax cuts. He’s still focused on deregulation. “I think that there's a paradox here in that got more solid in his support, his takeover of the Republican Party is absolutely complete ... His hold on the Republican Party has never been stronger, but at the same time, his ceiling for appealing to new voters has never been weaker,” Burgat said.
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