The stock market is poised to surge 2% on Tuesday if new inflation data cools down as expected, JPMorgan says
The January consumer price index report is likely to jolt the stock market in a big way when it's released this Tuesday, according to a note fromThe bank said it expects a big move in stock prices in either direction, depending on whether the inflation report is higher or lower than consensus estimates.
The most likely scenario with a 65% chance of happening, according to JPMorgan, is the January CPI report revealing headline inflation of between 6.0% and 6.3%. If that occurs, JPMorgan expects a bullish move from the"This bullish outcome would likely pull yields lower, along with the US Dollar, and boost risk assets. It may have investors question the pace of disinflation given the previous two prints had 60 basis point declines from the prior month," JPMorgan said.
"The hawkish outcome here would ne be as negative as if this occurred last year and may be proxied by the September 2022 print where we saw CPI step down from 9.1% in July to 8.5% in August to 8.3% in September. That print triggered a 4.3% reaction in the S&P 500. Positioning is unlikely to lead to as dramatic a result," JPMorgan said.
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