The stock market and the economy are telling two different stories.
The S&P 500's monster rally has notched the best two-month start to a year since 1991, but by one simple measure, the market pricing seems to be ignoring the economic reality.
"On a valuation basis this market has risen to reflect a macro environment that is materially more positive than the one we currently have, and as a fundamentals-driven analyst, that makes me nervous over the medium term," Essaye said in a note Tuesday. The mismatch between fundamental reality and market pricing has had many on Wall Street scratching their heads as stocks' comeback coincided with a wave of downward growth and earnings revisions. The first-quarter earnings growth forecast for the S&P 500 firms has turned negative and consensus first-quarter GDP growth has also been slashed to below 2 percent.
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