Market Overview Analysis by Lance Roberts covering: Nasdaq 100, S&P 500. Read Lance Roberts's latest article on Investing.com
.” This is particularly true of the numerous articles I wrote over the years about the risks of excess valuations, monetary interventions, and artificially suppressed interest rates. However, here we are.
“When you sit down with your portfolio management team, and the first comment made is “this is nuts,” it’s probably time to think about your overall portfolio risk. On Friday, that was how the investment committee both started and ended – “this is nuts.” We have been discussing the overbought, extended, and complacent market over the last couple of weeks, but on Friday, I tweeted out a couple of charts that illustrated the excess.
Since 1900, the stock market has “averaged” an 8% annualized rate of return. However, this does NOT mean the market returns 8% every year. As we discussed recently, several key facts about markets should be understood.: Historically, the stock market increases about 73% of the time. The other 27% of the time, market corrections reverse the excesses of previous advances. The table below shows the dispersion of returns over time.”leads to a 73% success rate on market calls.
If economic conditions worsen or fiscal policies tighten, we could see a significant reset. Earnings projections would likely be revised downward, dragging down equity prices. As James Montier suggested, long-term returns for U.S. equities look grim even under optimistic assumptions. He noted that price-to-earnings ratios reflect these outsized profit margins, leaving little room for error.
We’ve been bullish recently, but historical indicators and emerging risks—such as market exuberance, elevated profit margins, and potential fiscal tightening—suggest increased caution may be warranted in 2025. The goal is not to predict every market move but to prepare for shifts in risk and reward. This approach has helped us navigate past cycles, even if we’ve occasionally made missteps.
United States Latest News, United States Headlines
Similar News:You can also read news stories similar to this one that we have collected from other news sources.
Hippo Stars Eric Roberts & Eliza Roberts on Family Dynamic & TragedyStay tuned and subscribe for updates. I will be making a another video about how this film came to be. Follow hippothemovie on Instagram for all release updates!
Read more »
The Long History of Stock Market Prediction ProblemsMarket Overview Analysis by Lance Roberts covering: S&P 500. Read Lance Roberts's latest article on Investing.com
Read more »
Risk Management Becomes Critical as Analysts Double Down on Bullish 2025 ForecastsMarket Overview Analysis by Lance Roberts covering: S&P 500. Read Lance Roberts's latest article on Investing.com
Read more »
Corporate Profitability Hits Record - But Is It Enough to Sustain Stock Rally?Market Overview Analysis by Lance Roberts covering: . Read Lance Roberts's latest article on Investing.com
Read more »
Speculative Retail Bets Are Pushing Leverage to Dangerous LevelsStocks Analysis by Lance Roberts covering: Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, NVIDIA Corporation, GameStop Corp. Read Lance Roberts's latest article on Investing.com
Read more »
Housing Affordability Brings Market to a StandstillMarket Overview Analysis by Lance Roberts covering: S&P 500, Boeing Co. Read Lance Roberts's latest article on Investing.com
Read more »