The rise of Restore, a hard-Right party led by Rupert Lowe, has been a complex and multifaceted phenomenon. From allegations of aggressive behaviour and sexual abuse to the effective use of social media, this party has managed to attract a large following and has become a significant player in the UK's political landscape.
Every so often, a Land Rover Defender pulls up outside the Reform Party's Makerfield HQ, on an industrial estate in south Wigan, and disgorges a group of largely male political activists.
They shout mildly abusive slogans before posing for photographs waving dark blue placards, which carry the slogan: 'We're voting Restore Britain.
' Then they get back in the noisy 4x4 and drive off. The bizarre spectacle serves as a metaphor for the state of what is arguably the most important by-election in Britain's recent history. On paper, the poll, which culminates on Thursday, was expected to be a showdown between Reform and Labour. Victory for the latter would, of course, propel its candidate, Andy Burnham, back to Westminster and on a seemingly unstoppable path to Downing Street.
In practice, something very different has been going on. For during recent weeks, an astonishing amount of oxygen has been consumed by - and some might argue wasted on - ferocious disputes between Nigel Farage's party and their rivals in Restore, a hitherto-obscure hard-Right outfit which only came into being last year and is led by the 68-year-old former Reform MP Rupert Lowe.
The effect of this spat is now laid bare in polls, which suggest that the most important by-election in Britain's modern history will end one of two ways. If turnout is high, Burnham is likely to win comfortably, perhaps by as much as 10 per cent of the vote.
If it's lower, the race is likely to be much tighter: although he's still favoured to win (the bookies put his chances at 84 per cent), the margin could be a mere couple of percentage points. Recent weeks have seen ferocious disputes between Nigel Farage's party and their rivals in Restore, a hard-Right outfit led by the 68-year-old former Reform MP Rupert Lowe Lowe has a combined 1.8 million followers across social media sites Facebook and Instagram Both scenarios will, of course, place Britain on course to being saddled with its most Left-wing Prime Minister in history.
Yet Andy Burnham is unlikely to be carried to victory in Makerfield by tub-thumping socialists. Instead, he will almost certainly owe his success to the unexpected popularity of Restore, the most Right-wing party in the contest. An internal, constituency-wide Labour poll, which leaked yesterday, set out this unusual state-of-affairs in black and white. It shows Farage's candidate, a plumber named Robert Kenyon, on 24 per cent, some 11 points behind Burnham.
Restore's Rebecca Shepherd, a local businesswoman, meanwhile commands the support of 13 per cent of likely voters, more than double the number a few weeks back, and more than enough to hold the effective balance of power. Were Restore not to exist, Reform might very well hoover up that 13 per cent, placing it on the path to victory. Or, to put things another way, Lowe is doing to Farage what Farage once did to the Tories: eating his lunch.
So how - and why - has this happened? And what has elevated this upstart party, which remains unknown to many voters, and didn't even exist a year ago, into what is potentially a history-making role? The answer revolves around an extraordinary tale of middle-aged male egos, a poisonous and at times extremely petty feud, allegations of aggressive behaviour and sexual abuse - as well as an astonishingly clever and effective use of social media.
With the help of a relatively tiny group of aides, led by a former UKIP staffer named Alistair Harrison, Lowe has cultivated enormous followings on X, Facebook, TikTok and Instagram, where his accounts are adept at producing viral content, carefully tailored to specific platforms. Lowe appeals to varying algorithms in a technique observers describe as 'the many faces of Rupert Lowe' (pictured with Makerfield's Restore candidate, Rebecca Shepherd) The team, some of whom are said to affectionately refer to their boss as 'Grandpa Simpson', are adept at creating posts that appeal to varying algorithms in a technique observers describe as 'the many faces of Rupert Lowe'.
On Facebook and Instagram, where he has a combined 1.8 million followers, political messages and video clips of Lowe laying into civil servants at parliamentary committee meetings are interspersed with picturesque shots of his Gloucestershire farm, with captions such as 'proper England'. On X (800,000 followers), he tends to be far feistier and more combative, in keeping with the medium's argumentative nature. His TikTok (90,000) is even more shouty.
Regardless of the platform, much of his content, which has helped Restore acquire a reported 120,000 members, revolves around highly divisive issues such as immigration, crime and reinstating the death penalty. The party's policy platform includes meme-friendly measures such as banning the burka, restricting halal and kosher slaughter, and repatriating illegal migrants. The extraordinary tale of how Restore has risen to prominence is a complex one, with multiple strands.
One key factor is the alleged aggressive behaviour of some of Nigel Farage's supporters, who have been accused of making personal attacks on opponents. There have also been claims of sexual abuse, although these have not been proven. Lowe has denied all allegations, and his team has pointed out that some of the abuse claims have been made by individuals who have since been banned from social media.
However, the damage has been done, and the controversy has helped to fuel Restore's rise. Another factor is the use of social media by Lowe and his team. They have been highly effective in creating viral content, which has helped to attract a large following. The team has also been adept at using algorithms to their advantage, creating posts that appeal to different types of users.
This has allowed them to reach a wider audience, and has helped to boost Restore's profile. The party's policy platform is also highly divisive, with a focus on issues such as immigration, crime and the death penalty. This has helped to attract a large following, particularly among those who are dissatisfied with the current political landscape.
In conclusion, the rise of Restore is a complex and multifaceted phenomenon. It is a product of the alleged aggressive behaviour of some of Nigel Farage's supporters, the use of social media by Lowe and his team, and the highly divisive policy platform of the party. As the by-election in Makerfield approaches, it remains to be seen whether Restore will continue to rise in popularity, or whether it will ultimately fail to make a significant impact.
One thing is certain, however: the party has already had a significant impact on the political landscape, and its influence will be felt for some time to come
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