After Democrats got the upper hand in suburban areas in 2018 and 2020, the pendulum looks set to swing back in the GOP’s direction in 2022 — at least to some extent. More from FiveThirtyEight:
FiveThirtyEight’s urbanization index for congressional districts is the natural logarithm of the average number of people living within a five-mile radius of every census tract in a given district, based on a weighted average of the population of each census tract. Dense Urban seats have an urbanization index of 13 or higher; Urban-Suburban from 12.5 to 13; Dense Suburban from 11.5 to 12.5; Suburban-Exurban from 10.5 to 11.5; Rural-Exurban from 9.5 to 10.5; and Mostly Rural below 9.5.
The average-per-category columns reflect the average share of each district’s population that lives in census tracts defined as rural, exurban or small town, suburban or small city, or urban core or large city, which are categorized as follows: Rural has fewer than 25,000 people living within a five-mile radius of a census tract; exurban or small town as having between 25,000 and 99,999; suburban or small city as having between 100,000 and 249,999 people; and urban core or large city as having...
Partisan lean is the average margin difference between how a state or district votes and how the country votes overall.
— that is, the decisive 218th seat for a party’s House majority — 12 are either Dense Suburban or Suburban-Exurban districts. Republicans are favored to some extent in nine of them, although not a lock to win any.Congressional districts by urbanization-index grouping and competitiveness rating according to FiveThirtyEight’s Deluxe forecast, as of Nov. 1 at 5 p.m. Eastern
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