Analysis: Iran wants to come back to the negotiating table—but first the regime needs a narrative of success
The reality is more complicated than Iran’s assertions of success. First, the White House abrogated the JCPOA without being isolated internationally. Then, it managed to gain multilateral support for its economic sanctions, as European businesses complied with U.S. demands over the objections of Europe’s diplomats and politicians. By the International Monetary Fund’s estimate, due to the sanctions, Iran’s GDP will contract by 6 percent while inflation hovers around 50 percent.
Look closely, and you’ll see that in the past weeks, Rouhani and Foreign Minister Javad Zarif have also offered their own subtle olive-branch. Rouhani stopped insisting that America rejoin the JCPOA as a precondition to talks while stressing, “We are for logic and talks if [the other side] sits respectfully at the negotiating table and follows international regulations, not if it issues an order to negotiate.
This tells us that if Rouhani in his role as the head of the executive branch wants to embark on talks with America, Khamenei will publicly express his skepticism while essentially allowing the negotiations to proceed. This is a convenient way for the supreme leader to disown controversial talks with the U.S. so that Rouhani will have to deal with any political blowback.
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