They are important niches to the scientists who can now solve previously unsolvable problems, but they may not constitute another multi-billion-dollar market.
There has been considerable discussion and stock price volatility of late surrounding the expected timing of useful applications and hardware for quantum computing . One month after Google created excitement around its, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang and Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg, started a food fight on Wall Street by predicting that quantum computing won’t be a significant computing paradigm for at least a decade. Quantum stocks dropped over 30%.
While IBM and other quantum innovators like Microsoft, Google, AWS, and startups see hundreds of applications in development today, Zuckerberg and Huang are probably looking for big-impact applications. And there aren’t any, at least not yet. The current quantum applications being developed fill specific scientific niches with little industrial and economic impact. Those applications will take much faster quantum computers and new algorithms that can exploit the hardware.
Quantum is hard; extremely hard. Advances in cryogenics, qubit design, scaling interconnects, algorithm development, run-time tools, and applications will enable useful and perhaps pervasive quantum solutions. The inherent error rate of quantum bits is a thousand times higher than that of digital circuitry. Consequently, scaling quantum processors to thousands of qubits and dealing with the instability of those qubits creates demanding challenges.
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