When the Commerce Department releases its GDP estimate it likely will show an increase of just 2.8%.
Economists, though, aren't worried. They largely say that the slowdown is the result of factors, principally related to supply chain bottlenecks, that will ease in the months ahead and allow the recovery to continue.
"The weakness is a function of supply distortions more than anything," said Joseph LaVorgna, chief economist for the Americas at Natixis. "The economy is still fundamentally strong, and I wouldn't look at this one quarter of being reflective of where we're going." Natixis, in fact, has a slightly rosier outlook on the number for GDP, which is a sum of the goods and services the economy produces. The firm sees growth coming in at a 3.3% pace, down sharply from the 6.7% increase in the second quarter and the lowest figure since the staggering 31.2% plunge in the pandemic-scarred Q2 of 2020.
"To the extent that we haven't fully reopened, at least in terms of travel and leisure activities, things are healthier than what they seem," LaVorgna said. "I don't look at this as a sign of things to come."Still, the economy faces multiple challenges., waiting to deliver some $24 billion of goods, according to a recent Goldman Sachs estimate.
showed 41.3% of respondents think it will take at least 10 months for supply chains to return to normal, and 64.5% of Texas firms said they've seen disruptions or delays with supplies, up from 35.5% in February.
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