More than six months into the pandemic, the coronavirus has infected more than 11 million people worldwide, killing more than 525,000. But despite the increasing toll, scientists still do not have a definitive answer to one of the most fundamental questions about the virus: How deadly is it?A firm estimate
More than six months into the pandemic, the coronavirus has infected more than 11 million people worldwide, killing more than 525,000. But despite the increasing toll, scientists still do not have a definitive answer to one of the most fundamental questions about the virus: How deadly is it?
If there are many more asymptomatic infections than once thought, then the virus may be less deadly than it has appeared. But even that calculation is a difficult one. Story continuesAccording to data gathered by The New York Times, China had reported 90,294 cases as of Friday and 4,634 deaths, which is a CFR of 5%. The United States was very close to that mark. It has had 2,811,447 cases and 129,403 deaths, about 4.6%.
Normally, once the chaos has subsided, more testing is done and more mild cases are found — and because the denominator of the fraction rises, fatality rates fall. But the results are not always consistent or predictable. So far, in most countries, about 20% of all confirmed COVID-19 patients become ill enough to need supplemental oxygen or even more advanced hospital care, said Dr. Janet Diaz, head of clinical care for the WHO’s emergencies program.
And now, new factors are being introduced into the equation. For example, new evidence that people with Type A blood are more likely to fall deathly ill could change risk calculations. Type A blood is relatively rare in West Africa and South Asia, and very rare among the Indigenous peoples of South America.
The CDC relies on a “symptomatic case fatality ratio” that “is not necessarily equivalent to the number of reported deaths per reported cases.” The best estimate for the United States is 0.4%, according to a set of planning scenarios released in late May. The agency did not respond to requests to explain how it arrived at that figure, or why it was so much lower than the WHO’s estimate. By comparison, 0.4% of the United States population is 1.3 million people.
To arrive at the CDC’s new estimate, researchers tested samples from 11,933 people for antibodies to the coronavirus in six U.S. regions. New York City reported 53,803 cases by April 1, but the actual number of infections was 12 times higher — nearly 642,000, the agency estimated.
United States Latest News, United States Headlines
Similar News:You can also read news stories similar to this one that we have collected from other news sources.
Coronavirus threatened to make a mess of Kentucky’s primary. It could be a model instead.Voting rights experts say other states should be reaching out to Kentucky for advice, as a potential blueprint for scaling up pandemic-safe voting for the November elections
Read more »
Faces of some of the more than 125,000 lives lost in US to coronavirusMore than 125,000 people have now died from the coronavirus pandemic in the U.S.
Read more »
New York City Restaurants Open Outposts in the Hamptons This SummerThe coronavirus pandemic has pushed New York City restaurateurs to creatively expand offerings, with some opening outposts in the Hamptons
Read more »
NBA emphasizes mental health as teams await Disney 'bubble'The resumption of the NBA season during the coronavirus pandemic is making mental health a priority.
Read more »