An omicron subvariant known as BA.2 is driving up COVID case numbers in the United Kingdom, sparking worry of another surge in the United States.
Research assistants Rashi Thakur works to move the samples that have been cleaned of unwanted materials into one tube before they can undergo the last step of sequencing, inside the COVID Genomics Lab at Houston Methodist Hospital on Wednesday, Jan. 5, 2022, in Houston.is driving up COVID case numbers in the United Kingdom, sparking worry of another surge in the United States.
In Houston, however, case numbers remain flat, and experts say it’s difficult to predict what may happen locally in the coming weeks. While national trends show that BA.2 is making inroads throughout the U.S., now accounting for up toWastewater surveillance shows no detectable samples of the subvariant at any of the city’s treatment plants as of March 14, according to the city’s online dashboard.
BA.2 is likely to become the dominant strain across the country by April, said Dr. Peter Hotez, dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine and co-director of the Texas Children’s Hospital Center for Vaccine Development.Cases will likely rise nationally, he said, but the severity is difficult to predict.The subvariant is about 30 to 50 percent more infectious than the original omicron strain, experts say, and it’s hitting the northeast the hardest.
The higher prevalence of the BA.2 may be due to tighter COVID restrictions in that part of the country, said Dr. Luis Ostrosky, chief of infectious diseases with McGovern Medical School at UTHealth Houston. With a smaller portion of the population in the northeast exposed to omicron, natural immunity may not be as widespread compared to Texas, he said.
“We had very extensive spread over the winter, but we’re starting now to get into the window where we could be losing that immunity,” Ostrosky said.He predicted that Houston will see a modest bump in cases from the rodeo and Spring Break gatherings with a larger increase in the summer, when natural immunity will have waned, he said.“I think we have to be reflective of what’s happened in Texas and in the southern states the last two summers and falls,” he said.
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