No 15 and No 16 seeds are winning in the NCAA tournament more than ever before and by some distance. Is it a statistical anomaly or the outcome of a broader trend?
Is there a reason behind the uptick in these extreme upsets in recent years? Your guess is as good as mine, but it feels like a good time to explore some possibilities.was introduced in 2018, along with new rules that allowed student-athletes to transfer schools without having to sit out a year. This has drastically increased the number of transfers, as they have been incentivized with the freedom to play right away.
Fairleigh Dickinson benefited greatly from the transfer portal as they added new faces to a team who only won four games the previous season. An offensive style common in today’s game is “pace and space”. Many schools are deciding to go smaller, play faster and are always looking to add skill, specifically shooting. This style allows teams to play with an open paint and rely on scoring from the three-point line or in the lane after dribble penetration or cutting action.
The Princeton Tigers upset No 2 Arizona and No 7 Missouri and are heading to the Sweet 16 for the first time since 1967. The Tigers no longer run offense like they did in the days of Pete Carril, opting more for the new style of pace, space, on-ball screens, and big dribble-drive gaps. They still rely on player movement and ball movement but you won’t see the famous Princeton “chin” sets that helped them upset UCLA in 1996.
Upsets are one of the most exciting aspects of March Madness because they bring an element of unpredictability to the tournament. The effect of the transfer portal, where it’s redistributing talent while the biggest powers continue to rely on one-and-done players, plus the increased focus on space and shooting in today’s game has changed the tournament. Those changes have tilted the odds in the underdogs’ favor.
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