The Lingering Scars of the China Shock: Why Economists Misunderstood Free Trade

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The Lingering Scars of the China Shock: Why Economists Misunderstood Free Trade
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A new study revisits the impact of the 'China Shock' on American communities, finding that while places have largely recovered, individuals displaced by manufacturing job losses continue to struggle. The study highlights the limitations of traditional economic models in predicting the real-world consequences of free trade and underscores the need for greater government intervention to support affected communities.

By now, many economists are hoarse screaming that higher tariffs and a trade war will raise prices and hurt the U.S. economy.by Quinnipiac University, conducted in late January, found that 42% of Americans believe tariffs will help the U.S. economy. The United States' recent history with free trade might help explain the disconnect between economists and a large swath of the American public.

The economists, as well as others in their wake, also found that the broader communities hit by the China Shock suffered enormously. They saw higher unemployment rates. They saw declines in wages and in upward mobility.

But it's not like no one saw the destruction coming. In 1999, there were violent protests in Seattle against the World Trade Organization. Labor unions were shouting from the rooftops that foreign competition was devastating for their members. And politicians like Bernie Sanders, Ross Perot — and, yes, Donald Trump, then running to get the presidential nomination of the Reform Party — vociferously opposed the bipartisan free trade movement.

A bedrock theory in economics has been the theory of comparative advantage, which basically says"free trade among consenting nations raises GDP in all of them," Autor says. And, we should say, that may still be true. Autor and his colleagues' research focuses on how manufacturing workers and their communities adjusted to the trade shock. They don't look at the overall costs and benefits of free trade with China., who got access to a massive new market for their goods.

Instead of moving to new sectors or places, manufacturing workers either dropped out of the labor force or clung to jobs in their dying industries. Even those who were able to keep jobs in declining manufacturing businesses still suffered. They saw their wages stagnate and their opportunities for upward advancement disappear.

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