While the recession is not the most likely scenario for now, the probability of recession has been on the rise in recent months, says former Goldman Sachs...
“‘While I don’t think recession is now the most likely scenario, I think the probability of recession has been rising in recent months.’”
Cohen compared current economic conditions with the situation 18 months ago when everyone was concerned about what would happen as the Federal Reserve started its campaign of raising interest rates to curb inflation, even as the economy held up well due to a strong consumer sector supported by savings from the government’s stimulus payments and the suspension of student-loan repayments during the pandemic while the labor market remained robust.
For example, if the Sept. 30 deadline for Congress to pass a new federal budget is not met, there is a chance of a government shutdown.
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