People preparing to emigrate from poor countries to rich countries earn, on average, 73% more than those staying put
number of irregular migrants crossing into Europe spiked in 2015, policymakers scrambled to stem the flow. One of the more humane ideas they latched onto was an old one: to slow migration by targeting its “root causes”. Growth and opportunity at home, the thinking went, would dull people’s enthusiasm to up sticks. So the European Union set up a multi-billion-euro trust fund for Africa.
Start with the work of Paul Clist of the University of East Anglia and Gabriele Restelli of the University of Manchester, who looked at the relationship between the number of migrants trying informally to cross into Italy between 2003 and 2016 and the amount of aid Italy and others gave to the migrants’ home countries. They used statistical regressions to strip out the influence of other factors, such as conflict.
Migration, in fact, goes hand-in-hand with a country’s development. In another study Mr Clemens found that as poor countries grow richer their emigration rate rises. This trend continues until they have an annual income per head of about $10,000 . Income per head in sub-Saharan Africa is about a third of that.
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