Holiday season inventory decisions at retailers are marked by caution and fear the consumer is at an inflection point in spending.
Logistics companies do not expect a surge in demand during peak holiday shopping season, according to the CNBC Supply Chain Survey.
"The largest retailers are past working through their excess inventories, but careful not to over-order," Hoffman said, while some of the small- to medium-sized retailers are still destocking. During earnings, major U.S. banks have presented a picture of the consumer that is more resilient. "Where am I seeing softness in credit?" said JPMorgan chief financial officer Jeremy Barnum, repeating an analyst's question on the bank's earnings call. "I think the answer to that is actually nowhere."
"Retailers are finding that the items they rely on to bring people into the store and boost sales are costing them more," Hoffman said. "That's limiting how much they can discount so we're working with them to find savings elsewhere in their supply chains." Mixed expectations for rates and volumes indicate that companies are making different bets with their inventory strategies, which Robertson said is typical in an uncertain economy and will produce winners and losers. Visibility of demand and the flexibility to respond to it will be key in determining the winners.
"With a lot of uncertainty around consumer demand, interest rates and the global economy, most people do not have a positive outlook on freight volumes in the first half of next year, but we could certainly see a rebound in the second half of next year," said Brian Bourke, global chief commercial officer at SEKO Logistics.
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