In the wake of the coronavirus catastrophe, investors need to brace for the “Great Repression,” this economist says:
The economic aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis was so tepid it was referred to as the “Great Recession.” In the wake of the coronavirus catastrophe, investors need to brace for the “Great Repression,” which may be even uglier than the downturn of a decade ago.
The 10-year Treasury yield TMUBMUSD10Y, 0.663% sinks lower and lower each quarter, to 31 basis points by the fourth quarter, and averages 18 basis points throughout 2021. Yields fall as bond prices rise. Rosenberg also lays out a “best case,” which depends on a vaccine or treatment emerging in the next six to 12 months. That outlook includes an unemployment rate averaging about 9% for the next two years, a stock-market bottom of 2,500 for the S&P 500 in Q2, and a cyclical low of 29 basis points for the 10-year note in 2021.
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