Economists at Wells Fargo do not expect any policy changes from the FOMC at its meeting next week.
But the Committee's post-meeting communications should shed more light on the potential path of policy adjustments later this year, they say. Median dot for 2024 will remain unchanged at 4.625% We do not expect the FOMC to change the federal funds rate or alter its current pace of balance sheet runoff at its upcoming meeting on March 19-20. We now expect the FOMC will initiate the first cut to the federal funds rate at its June 12 meeting .
We look for 100 bps of easing in total this year and another 100 bps of easing over the course of 2025 to bring the fed funds target range to 3.25%-3.50% by year-end 2025. Our base case is that the median dot for 2024 will remain unchanged at 4.625%, but the risks are skewed toward a higher median given the distribution of the prior dots and the recent run of inflation data.
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