The respective annual rates are projected to nudge up to 2.3% and 2.8%, far below their mid-2022 peaks but stubbornly above the Fed's 2% goal.
At a time when most Federal Reserve officials see lower interest rates head, a key report on Wednesday is expected to show inflation drifting further away from target. The Commerce Department will release the October look at its personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed's primary yardstick to measure the pace of price increases. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect the headline all-items measure to show a 0.
"Recent data show progress on inflation has slowed," Brett Ryan, senior U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank, said in a note. "This policy mix will reinforce these signals." In fact, Ryan forecasts that core PCE inflation "will stall" around 2.5% or higher all the way through 2026, even as Fed officials have stated their intent to continue lowering interest rates. Markets lately have become more skeptical of the Fed's ability to ease policy.
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