The Fed is declaring war on inflation. It could lead straight to recession.

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The Fed is declaring war on inflation. It could lead straight to recession.
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Jerome Powell has pledged to do whatever it takes to curb inflation, a point that he’ll punctuate on Wednesday when the central bank raises interest rates for the fifth time this year

Many Fed watchers say some of the root causes of inflation lie outside the central bank’s control. | Drew Angerer/Getty ImagesThe Federal Reserve is poised to deploy another supersized interest rate hike to fight the sharpest price surge in 40 years, a move that has drawn remarkably little political pushback despite rising market anxiety just weeks before an election.

this year. The job seems nowhere near done, with the costs of everything from health care to rents soaring even as gas prices fall. But the Fed’s policies take time to feed through the economy, meaning the central bank could end up depressing economic activity more than necessary before realizing it, given the sheer speed at which it’s jacking up rates — the fastest pace in three decades.

Economists say the range of outcomes for the second half of Biden’s presidency is astoundingly broad — it could see a severe economic downturn or simply a period of sluggish growth. Prices might continue to rise at a painfully rapid clip, or they could begin to drop. Central banks around the world are also ramping up borrowing costs to battle inflation, which could have an intense cumulative effect on global growth. That calls for caution on the part of the Fed, said Maurice Obstfeld, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

Maurice Obstfeld speaks at a news conference during the World Bank/IMF Annual Meetings, Oct. 4, 2016, at IMF headquarters in Washington. | Jose Luis Magana/AP Photo They emphasized the importance of central banks communicating about where they plan to go to help markets adjust in an orderly way.

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