BuzzFeed News has seen a memo laying out the thinking at the highest level of the European Commission, and interviewed multiple officials and diplomats about extending article 50.
The European Union will advise EU leaders that delaying Brexit makes sense only in three scenarios: to give more time to prepare for no deal, to complete ratification of the withdrawal agreement or if the UK decides to hold an election or a referendum.
Under the suggestion that the EU leaders could agree to more time to prepare for no deal, the memo states that the EU has prepared since December 2017 for no deal on 29 March. “We are prepared, why should we give more time, this would create a de facto transition period,” the memo goes on to say. A diplomat from a major EU member state told BuzzFeed that the 27 would probably have to agree to any request from the UK asking for the time needed to hold a general election or a referendum, for fear of otherwise being seen to interfere in domestic British politics.
Merkel is also concerned that a referendum campaign would ask the EU27 “to give something” to the UK, reopening old debates on restricting freedom of movement, which she doesn’t want to have again. Some officials even predict that the 27 could go as far as making clear that any delay would be a one-off, barring exceptional and specific scenarios such as MPs voting for the deal during the extension period, and parliament then needing a bit more time to complete its legislative process.
But based on recent form, a short delay may not provide enough time to sort out the disarray in Westminster. UK MPs would need to find a way to put together what so far has eluded parliament: a majority in favour of something workable. The discussion over extending article 50 between Europe’s capitals has barely started. While all leaders are keen to find a balance between avoiding both a no-deal and prolonged uncertainty, they have differing views on how to achieve this. The terms they will set for prolonging Brexit, coupled with a reason and proposed length, will be above all a political decision.
The 27 leaders’ decision will be determined by the length and reason requested by Britain for the delay. What happens in the UK parliament ahead of next week’s a European Council meeting of EU heads of government and state, which will take place in Brussels on XX, will be crucial. “The elections are an issue, and it would end up at the ECJ [European Court of Justice] for sure if the UK doesn’t hold them,” said a diplomat.
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