Without addressing the reason cartels exist in the first place—U.S. demand—we’ll keep killing cartel bosses. And we’ll keep seeing the same results.
A soldier stands guard by a charred vehicle after it was set on fire in Cointzio, Michoacán state, Mexico, Sunday, Feb. 22, 2026, after the death of the leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel, Nemesio Rubén Oseguera Cervantes, known as “El Mencho.
” The war on drugs in Latin America follows a typical pattern—kill a cartel leader in a “decapitation operation,” celebrate the “success” in the war on drugs, lament the emergence of a new cartel leader, kill the new cartel leader.“El Mencho,” leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel and most wanted drug kingpin in the United States. With a bounty ofBefore officials in the United States or Mexico start celebrating, they need a reality check. Sure, you removed a cartel kingpin, but what happens next? The reality is, we know how this plays out. It doesn’t end cartel activity, and it certainly doesn’t reduce the flow or use of drugs.. Both times policymakers were quick to celebrate. Both times the same thing happened next—a new cartel emerged, and a new man came out on top.collapsed. But this breakdown didn’t end the illicit cocaine trade. Instead, his death created a power vacuum. Ultimately, theof the world’s cocaine supply until two years later. In 1995, the Colombian Police, with help from the U.S. government captured the leader of the Cali Cartel, Gilberto Rodriguez Orejuela. Once again, policymakers celebrated. Once again, the drug trade didn’t end, but the Norte del Valle Cartel took control. That is, until Colombian forces captured Iván Urdinol Granjales and his compatriots—again with U.S. support. Similarly, following El Chapo’s arrest in 2016, U.S. policymakers once again celebrated the removal of a drug kingpin. But just like before, removing the head of a cartel didn’t solve the drug problem. Following El Chapo, the “Now we are left to wonder—what comes next for CJNG? For Mexico? Some suggest El Mencho’s stepson, “El,” will likely succeed his stepfather. If his takeover comes without dispute, the cartel will likely continue to operate as it has for more thanHistory tells us to expect disputes during times of transition. Before the Chapitos established control following El Chapo’s capture, infighting among factions of the Sinaloa cartel resulted in a market spike inThis leaves a puzzle: if we know that these targeted operations are largely ineffective, why do they continue? The reality is that these operations serve another purpose in the war on drugs. When a kingpin is killed or captured, it makes headlines. It shows the broader public that officials have “done something” to combat narcotrafficking and organized crime. But these flashy headlines hide a cold reality about these operations—they largely fail to achieve U.S. policy goals. In many cases, they are counterproductive. When cartels lose their leaders, the industry doesn’t collapse. It destabilizes. In that instability, those who emerge victorious are those willing to take big risks and those comfortable using violence as a means of obtaining and maintaining power.The social media trial won’t save your kids. The backyard might.Cartels thrive in illicit markets. High demand and prohibitions on manufacturing or consuming a good or service makes providing said good or service highly profitable. Drugs are no exception. Changing who oversees a cartel doesn’t change the underlying dynamics present in illicit markets. As long as people demand drugs, there will be cartels willing and able to supply them. There is another element to consider as well. The instability these policies create doesn’t just “stay local.” In many cases, the ensuing chaos, power struggles, and violence lead to widespread displacement, including pushing more individuals to immigrate—both legally and illegally. Given the administration’s stated goal of stemming illicit migration flows, these types of policies aren’t just unproductive, but fundamentally at odds with stated policy goals. The kingpin may be dead, but another will take his place, as we’ve seen decade after decade. Without addressing the reason cartels exist in the first place—U.S. demand—we’ll keep killing cartel bosses. And we’ll keep seeing the same results.in Oakland, Calif., and an associate professor in economics at the University of Tampa. Molly R. Rovinski is a PhD student in the Department of Economics at George Mason University.75 arrested in downtown LA at ‘No Kings’ protest; federal officers injured, authorities sayNo more Cesar Chavez day, but some offices, services will still be closed in LA CountyUCLA’s Eric Freeny intends to stay for sophomore seasonBreak up LAUSD before it fails another generation
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