The easy part of the U.S. economic recovery is over. Now comes the hard part:
After a rollercoaster ride in the spring and summer, the U.S. economy appears to be entering a flatter stretch ahead of the pivotal 2020 presidential election.
Consider this: The government reported that nearly 30 million people were collecting unemployment benefits at the end of August. Even if that number is vastly overstated by double counting and other oddities — as some economists contend — it’s still far higher than the 1.4 million people who were receiving unemployment compensation before the pandemic struck.
The end of massive federal aid for the unemployed and small businesses also appears to have tapped the brakes on the speed of the recovery. The economy didn’t suffer as badly as many predicted when federal aid dried up — it’s proven to be quite resilient — but incomes for millions of Americans were sharply reduced and some businesses were left high and dry. They can’t keep employees on payrolls when demand is still well below pre-crisis levels.
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