Can Democrats keep House losses to a minimum? Nightly reports 👇
two years ago — in other words, seats that should be fairly safe in a typical election year. Redistricting has imperiled some incumbents. And there aren’t many opportunities where the party can hope for a pickup of a Republican-held seat. Still, there are signs that a full-blown red wave may not be in the cards., POLITICO’s national politics editor, about the state of play in the House. This conversation has been edited.
As that spending might indicate, we’ve frequently seen big victory waves in midterm elections like this one, marked by huge gains by the party out of power. What is the range of Republican House seat gains that we’re talking about here?Election Forecast There’s a whole range — geographically, demographically, all the other -lys out there. One of the big patterns, though, is that Democrats have a lot of open seats out there from retirements and redistricting. The whole election for them hinges on where their candidates are able to float above Biden’s bad approval ratings, and it’s a lot easier for incumbents to do that, especially those with their own strong brands. The open seats have been a real problem for House Democrats.
However, given the environment, I wonder if Democrats’ attempted gerrymanders in the first two states would have worked out. And the reason I say that is because Democrats in Nevada and Oregon tried to stretch their voters thin over as many districts as possible to paint a bunch of them light blue instead of making a smaller number of them more Democratic. And now there are three Democratic-leaning districts in each state that are in danger of turning red.
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