NEW HAVEN, Connecticut — Economists are struggling to reconcile their upbeat views on the United States economy with the angst of average Americans. The key measures of economic performance — growth, unemployment and inflation — are almost perfect, putting the US in an enviably strong position.
But ahead of November's presidential election, voters continue to cite the economy as a top issue. The main problem: inflation.How can this be? To the exasperation of most economists, all this handwringing seems terribly misplaced. The Covid-19 shock to US prices from the spring of 2021 to late 2023 has subsided dramatically.
A back-of-the-envelope estimate suggests that, as of May, the aggregate price level, measured by headline CPI, is fully 15 percentage points higher than it would have been had the CPI maintained its 1.5-percent pre-Covid trajectory. No wonder Americans are so pessimistic about the economy. The big jump in prices, especially for basic necessities, overwhelmingly outweighs the drop in the inflation rate.
Defining Economic Issue Of The US Election
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