The data: How many people could die of Covid-19 in SA?

Researchers estimate deaths based on Chinese and Italian data. But we can take action to stop the worst outcomes.

How many people could Covid-19 kill in South Africa? Researchers at the University of East Anglia in England have used data from the Chinese and Italian epidemics to make an onlineLed by Professor Peter Lloyd-Sherlock, the team, known as the Potential Impact of COVID-19 on Human Mortality Expert Consortium, warns that the tool’s results should be treated with caution. They have made assumptions based on the very imperfect knowledge we have of the coronavirus pandemic.

These calculations do not take into account that South Africans are generally in poorer health than the Italian and Chinese populations. It is unknown if the higher rates of HIV, TB, diabetes, and hypertension and the poorer nutritional status of many people will result in a higher death rate.

This is bad enough, but it will be a lot worse if much more than 50% of people get infected or our population’s poor health results in more deaths.

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TheCitizen_News /  🏆 6. in ZA

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