The U.S. Department of Defense is planning to discontinue data from one of its satellites—data that plays a critical role in hurricane forecasting. Here’s why KPRC 2 Chief Meteorologist Anthony Yanez says it could set us back.
Reading With A Rapper to host VIP sneaker party for top student readers in HoustonThe Defense Department wants to discontinue data from one of its essential hurricane satellites. Here’s why it could set us back.
NOAA operates the DMSP satellites in partnership with the U.S. Air Force, with NOAA responsible for operating the ground systems development and overseeing the satellites daily operation.I started writing weather articles for KPRC 2 back in 2009, using a WordPress blog. From the beginning, my goal has always been to explainBut this time, I’m writing about something I don’t feel I have a solid grip on. And I want to be honest about that. When weather intersects with government decisions, the conversation often shifts into politics, and that’s when finding clear, reliable information becomes challenging. Still, I’m going to do my best to break this down for you. Occam’s Razor is the idea that the simplest explanation is usually the right one. But we live in complicated times, and sometimes, things aren’t quite as straightforward as they seem.—data that plays a critical role in hurricane forecasting—it raised a lot of questions. And it’s something that deserves a closer look.. This satellite instrument gives forecasters a view that traditional weather satellites simply can’t provide. Think of it like an MRI or X-ray for a storm. While most satellites show us what’s happening on the surface or at the top of the clouds, SSMIS can seethe cloud layers. It reveals the internal structure of a tropical cyclone, helping us understand its core, and more importantly, whether it’s about to intensify., which is when a tropical system strengthens into a higher category hurricane much faster than expected. It’s one of the most dangerous and difficult-to-predict tropical weather events. Below is a slide from a hurricane talk I gave back in 2009. While we were making big strides in predicting where a storm would go ,In fact, this graphic below highlights that intensity forecast errors were largely unchanged and frankly, not great for years, going back to 1990.it might get there. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Defense Department have partnered on this kind of satellite data all the way back to the 1960s. It’s been a key part of improving hurricane forecasting since 2009. So when news broke that the Department of Defense would, it raised some serious concerns in the weather community. Look at the improvement in intensity forecasting since 2009. While day 5 remains an intensity challenge, days 1 through 4 have all seen improvement.The Navy says the reason for cutting off access is “to mitigate a significant cybersecurity risk.” A spokesperson added thatThat’s a serious concern and not one to dismiss. But it’s also raised eyebrows in the forecasting community. After all, this data is vital to public safety, especially during hurricane season.Can the cybersecurity concerns be addressed in a way that still allows NOAA access to this critical data? Is there a compromise that protects national securityI’m hoping the answer is yes. But as of now, there’s no long-term solution on the table, and the clock is ticking.NOAA’s Communications Director, Kim Doster, responded by saying the military satellite data is just one part of a “robust suite of hurricane forecasting and modeling tools.” She added that “NOAA’s data sources are fully capable of providing a complete suite of cutting-edge data and models that ensure the gold-standard weather forecasting the American people deserve.”in the Pacific from just a couple of weeks ago. The level of detail from the SSMIS instrument is incredible; it shows features inside the storm that other satellites just can’t capture at night., which, while useful, don’t offer the same clarity or depth. You don’t have to be a meteorologist to see that this is a big loss.I’ve been doing this long enough to remember the big misses, back when we didn’t have the tools or understanding we do today. 15 years ago, rapid intensification was a mystery. We didn’t fully understand the physics behind it, and we didn’t have the satellite data to see what was happening inside these storms. Back then, if a hurricane was in a favorable environment, the National Hurricane Center would strengthen the storm by one category. But sometimes, the storm would jumpThose days could return. We honestly won’t know until we’re staring down our first few major storms of the season. That said, I’m hopeful a deal will be worked out. Why? Because this isn’t a budget issue, if it were, I’d be less optimistic. This is aboutWe’ve got 30 days. Let’s see what decisions are made.Chief meteorologist and recipient of the 2022 American Meteorological Society’s award for Excellence in Science Reporting by a Broadcast Meteorologist.
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