We're all actuaries now.
What is a life worth? As cold as the question can seem, the federal government has been answering that question for years. When the government considers imposing a regulation, it makes a calculation called"the value of a statistical life" that puts a price tag on its people.
It seemed rational when considering whether to require automakers to install seat belts, or require an industry to reduce pollution. But it hasn't been used to address a public-health disaster. Gov. Andrew Cuomo has frequently said that if the strict lockdown measures he has imposed in New York saved a single life, he would consider them worth it. His calculus may be the more aspirational but not the most realistic. Others pushing to swing the doors to the economy open and continue the chase toward prosperity argue that the economic damage from staying home could be worse than the impact of the disease, a frame often used by President Donald Trump. Risk analysis has been around in one form or another as long as there have been people, spawning the multi-trillion dollar insurance market, among other things. But most of that risk business relies on the premise that the risk can be spread so that when the damage comes, only a small number of policyholders will be affected. The coronavirus is fundamentally different. It has struck in more than 180 countries, infected more than 5 million people and killed more than 320,000, all numbers that almost certainly are low.The nature of the risk of returning to normal is in no way a normal form of risk-taking, or risk calculation. A farmer plants crops without any guarantee that they will ever be sold at market. There are several ways to hedge that risk. Engineers test the strength of a bridge so that you will risk crossing it. Investors make the bet that a stock will go up, with the risk that it could also go down. Harry Markowitz, a renowned economist and Nobel Laureate, was credited with proving why it was not a good idea to put all of your eggs in one basket. Yet acceptance of some level of risk, even one when the choice was between life and death, has led to greatness and advances in modern society.
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