The proportion of people who have died from the virus in British care homes is higher than in France, Germany, Canada or Sweden
sweeping Europe. Images of overwhelmed hospitals in Lombardy played on television every night. Governments were beginning to put in place restrictions that would last for months. And Mike Padgham, the owner of four care homes in Scarborough and Pickering, in the north-east of England, faced a dilemma. Should he shut his homes to visitors?
Lots of factors beyond the government’s control contributed to this. Care homes are a popular way to look after old folk. Britons are fatter than their fellow Europeans. The large ethnic-minority population is disproportionately likely to suffer from diabetes and heart disease, which increase the risk of severe covid-19. Genomic analysis suggests Britain imported lots of cases from Spain, before it was clear how prevalent the virus was there.
Then it became clear just how fast the disease was spreading. On March 13th, Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London, whose team has produced the outbreak’s most influential modelling, presented analysis towhich showed hospitals would soon be overwhelmed. Policy changed—but not swiftly enough. On March 16th Mr Johnson advised people to avoid all unnecessary contact. On March 18th he announced that schools would close. It was not until March 23rd that he ordered people to stay at home.
The shortage had particularly grim consequences in care homes. With limited testing available, staff with symptoms were instructed to stay at home, which resulted in a spike in the use of agency workers, who moved from one home to another. Care homes also took lots of those rushed out of hospitals to free up beds, without the ability to test many of the new arrivals. Asymptomatic care-home workers gained access to testing only on April 29th.
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