How the Conservatives perform at the next election depends on whether disaffected Tory voters consolidate around single parties
As well as being defeated in a by-election in Hartlepool, in the north-east, Labour lost ground in pro-Brexit small towns across the North and the Midlands in this month’s local elections. But it also racked up some smaller victories in what had been Tory turf. It won the mayoralties of the West of England, and of Cambridgeshire and Peterborough, from the Tories. Greens and Liberal Democrats also made inroads into Tory areas like Suffolk and Cambridgeshire respectively.
Voters with degrees and those who work in management are gravitating towards Labour, while Tories have made inroads among manual workers and adults without university qualifications , according to Will Jennings, a professor of political science and public policy at Southampton University. While the trend can be traced back decades, the fight over Brexit accelerated it.
Culture matters too. Mr Johnson has offended the sensibilities of the liberal professionals whom Mr Cameron wooed. A hard Brexit, tougher migration rules that restrict the supply of European au pairs and restaurant staff, and cuts to foreign aid all run against the grain of these areas.
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