Standard Chartered: Speculative funds have continued to amass positions on the short side of the market despite a broader lack of trend.
Apparently, short sellers did not get the memo: commodity analysts at Standard Chartered have reported that speculative funds have continued to amass positions on the short side of the market despite a broader lack of trend. According to the experts, speculative shorts across the four main Brent and WTI contracts climbed by 16.5 million barrels w/w to a 31-month high of 251.7mb while longs declined by 3.8mb to 451.2mb. The speculative net long represents 4.
Commodity experts at Standard Chartered have created a heatmap of demand forecast changes, including their own, in the latest reports relative to one and three months ago. You will notice that the heatmap provides a positive view of demand, with most estimates for 2023 quarters and the annual average having moved higher over both time periods.
In sharp contrast, there’s a disconnect between what energy economists are seeing in the data and what speculative traders are acting on. Oil prices have touched multi-year lows on several occasions over the past months, with StanChart speculating that the disconnect could be the result of the increasingly top-down and macro-led nature of oil-market sentiment., including the first MOMR forecasts for 2024. On the demand side, the IEA hiked its 2023 growth forecast by 240K barrels per day to 2.
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