This article discusses the rapid rise and subsequent disillusionment with generative AI, highlighting its limitations and the growing gap between hype and reality. It explores the fundamental flaws of generative AI models, their tendency to hallucinate, and the lack of profitability despite high valuations.
Generative AI took the world by storm in November 2022, with the release of OpenAI’s service ChatGPT. One hundred million people started using it, practically overnight. Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI, the company that created ChatGPT, became a household name. And at least half a dozen companies raced OpenAI in an effort to build a better system. OpenAI itself sought to outdo GPT-4, its flagship model, introduced in March 2023, with a successor, presumably to be called GPT-5.
Virtually every company hurtled to find ways of adopting ChatGPT (or a similar technology, made by other companies) into their business. There is just one thing: Generative AI doesn’t actually work that well, and maybe it never will. Fundamentally, the engine of generative AI is fill-in-the-blanks, or what I like to call “autocomplete on steroids.” Such systems are great at predicting what might sound good or plausible in a given context, but not at understanding at a deeper level what they are saying; an AI is constitutionally incapable of fact-checking its own work. This has led to massive problems with “hallucination,” in which the system asserts, without qualification, things that aren’t true, while inserting boneheaded errors on everything from arithmetic to science. As they say in the military: “frequently wrong, never in doubt.” Systems that are frequently wrong and never in doubt make for fabulous demos, but are often lousy products in themselves. If 2023 was the year of AI hype, 2024 has been the year of AI disillusionment. Something that I argued in August 2023, to initial skepticism, has been felt more frequently: generative AI might turn out to be a dud. The profits aren’t there—estimates suggest that OpenAI’s 2024 operating loss may be $5 billion—and the valuation of more than $80 billion doesn’t line up with the lack of profit
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