DOHA, Qatar — The myth of second-cycle failure re-emerged in soccer circles shortly after the U.S. men's national team exited the 2022 World Cup. It appeared frequently in discussions surrounding Gregg Berhalter as the dust settled on his first cycle as head coach of the United States Men's Soccer Team, and as U.S. Soccer mulled whether to bring him back for four more years. It has become conventional wisdom, somehow, that giving an international soccer coach a second World Cup cycle rarely works out.
as the dust settled on his first cycle as head coach of the United States Men's Soccer Team, and as U.S. Soccer mulled whether to bring him back for four more years. It has become conventional wisdom, somehow, that giving an international soccer coach a second World Cup cycle rarely works out.has, coincidentally, busted the myth.still standing among the eight quarterfinalists
Of course, they also happen to coach nations with reams of talent, and that is the primary reason they’re still standing. But comparable nations with coaches on first contracts — Germany, Spain, Mexico, Denmark, Uruguay — have exited early. The evidence could hardly be stronger in opposition to the conventional wisdom.A second-cycle coach is, by definition, a coach who has met or exceeded expectations at his or her first World Cup, and thereby earned a second go-around.
The only ones who stick with incumbents are those who beat the odds to outperform expectations — like Croatia — or those who understand the value of continuity even in the face of failure — like Portugal and Brazil. Four years later, though, they face the same long odds and the same randomness that perhaps fell in their favor last time around, but still likely won’t this time.
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