Contrary to a widespread belief, Democrats do not have a decisive edge in suburbia
and live oaks of Skidaway Island, a suburb of Savannah, the Oyster Roast, a barbecue-cum-fund-raiser for the University of Georgia, is winding down and politics is raising its ugly head. “When we first came here,” says Allen Blount, a businessman from Jacksonville, “we were the only Democrats for miles around, and had to keep quiet about it. Now we’ve discovered a network of secret Democrats, but we still keep quiet so as not to upset our Republican friends.” Skidaway is majority Republican.
Mature suburbs have also become magnets for America’s most highly educated graduates. Their jobs may be in or near big cities but they commute from nearby tech suburbs, such as Aurora outside Denver or Cedar Park near Austin . According to Wendell Cox of Demographia, a public-policy firm, nearly three-quarters of college graduates live in what he calls “earlier” and “later” suburbs . Like minorities, graduates lean Democratic.
Their suburbs are, not by chance, more vital economically. The counties that voted for Mrs Clinton in 2016 accounted for three-quarters of America’sgrowth in 2010-17 and two-thirds of its new jobs. Put all this together, and a pattern emerges: inner suburbs are better educated, ethnically more mixed, produce more jobs and income, may have more people with the trait of “openness”—and vote Democratic.
So what does that imply for 2020? On the face of it, it looks like good news for Democrats. Using Mr Frey’s classification, mature suburbs contain 82m people, compared with just 27m in Republican-leaning emerging suburbs and 9m in safe Republican exurbs. The Democrats’ potential pool of voters is larger and, in 2018, they increased their actual vote from 57m to 61m, carrying the overall suburban vote.
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