That Knee Surgery You Postponed Could Soon Hobble Insurance Giants

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That Knee Surgery You Postponed Could Soon Hobble Insurance Giants
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Heard on the Street: That knee surgery you postponed helped insurance giants. Now it could hurt them.

‘ John Ransom noted it will be tough for managed care companies to replicate another year of low costs, with many of the doctors and nurses that escaped on “revenge travel” in the third quarter coming back, boosting capacity. He also highlighted the “triple threat” of the flu, RSV and Covid hurting insurer profits in the winter months.

It is likely UnitedHealth is being overly cautious with its estimates. UNH is well-known for providing conservative outlooks and then consistently beating those projections. Mr. Wilkes wrote that UNH usually improves earnings guidance by 3% to 6% and it is likely being cautious on medical costs. A key question is just how big the backlog of procedures really is. Many analysts were mystified by the low utilization this year even as Covid-19 eased. Mr. Ransom, who is still positive on the sector, said he doesn’t buy “the notion that there is some long-dated elective backlog that will emerge—we think we would have seen it by now.”

Still, the challenge for investors is that managed care companies have delivered excellent returns that will be tough to keep replicating.

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