What the analytics predict for Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt in this college football rivalry classic from an expert model that projects scores.
Tennessee is basically out of the College Football Playoff picture with three losses, but Vanderbilt is still hanging around the bracket looking for a way in as these two rivals meet on Saturday. Despite playing each other since 1892, this season marks the first time that both the Vols and Commodores are included in the AP top 25 at the same time on the same field.
Vanderbilt is looking for a 10-win season for the first time in school history, and still angling for an at-large bid in the playoff, making this arguably the biggest game it has ever played. Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the SP+ computer prediction model. The model simulates every NCAA college football game and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.The model is going with Big Orange to take the game on Rocky Top, but to sweat it out first. SP+ predicts that Tennessee will defeat Vanderbilt by a projected score of 32 to 31 and to win the game by an expected margin of just 0.7 points in the process.SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.” How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 349-336 against the spread with a 50.9 win percentage. Last week, it was 29-31 in its picks against the spread.The bettors are still siding with the Vols against the resurgent Dores, but by a slim margin. Tennessee is a 2.5 point favorite against Vanderbilt, according to the latest game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook. FanDuel lists the total at 65.5 points for the matchup, and set the moneyline odds for Tennessee at -146 and for Vanderbilt at +124 to win outright.Neither of these teams play particularly good defense right now, each ranking near the bottom of the SEC in most important categories, while each offense has the playmakers to exploit the other. But between the two, the Volunteers have been better at getting to the quarterback, recording 35 sacks this season, and Vandy has struggled against more potent aerial attacks.James Parks is the founder and publisher of College Football HQ. He has covered football for a decade, previously managing several team sites and publishing national content for 247Sports.com for five years. His work has also been published on CBSSports.com. He founded College Football HQ in 2020, and the site joined the Sports Illustrated Fannation Network in 2022 and the On SI network in 2024.
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