Can No. 3 TCU make history against No. 1 South Carolina? Breaking down the Elite Eight match-up, star showdoen, and betting outlook.
The 2026 Women's NCAA Tournament Elite Eight field is set, and Monday night's matchup between No. 3 TCU and No. 1 South Carolina promises to be one of the most compelling games of the bracket.79-69 in the Sweet Sixteen.
It was a performance powered by Marta Suarez and Olivia Miles, with the duo scoring or assisting on all 79 of the Horned Frog's points. Marta Suarez exploded for a career-high 33 points, and Olivia Miles added a sensational 28-point night of her own. TCU’s ability to produce elite-level offense from multiple scoring threats is what makes them especially dangerous, an edge they will need against one of the nation’s top seeds. Mar 28, 2026; Sacramento, CA, USA; Texas Christian University Horned Frogs guard Olivia Miles takes a jump shot during the fourth quarter of the game against the Virginia Cavaliers in the Sweet Sixteen game of the Sacramento Regional 4 of the women's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Golden 1 Center. Mandatory Credit: Ed Szczepanski-Imagn Images | Ed Szczepanski-Imagn Images The Gamecocks sent a message to the rest of the field by dismantling No. 4 Oklahoma 94-68. Ta'Niya Latson led both teams in scoring with 28 points, asserting her status as one of the most lethal scorers in the country. South Carolina wasn't just efficient; they were dominant. The Gamecocks shot an incredible 71% from three-point range and once led by 29 points near the end of the 4th quarter. That level of performance heading into the Elite Eight should put every remaining contender on notice. Dawn Staley's squad has looked every bit like the juggernaut they were projected to be at the start of the season, and they show no signs of slowing down. Mar 28, 2026; Sacramento, CA, USA; South Carolina Gamecocks guard Ta'niya Latson runs down the court after scoring against the Oklahoma Sooners in the Sweet Sixteen game of the Sacramento Regional 4 of the women's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Golden 1 Center. Mandatory Credit: Ed Szczepanski-Imagn Images | Ed Szczepanski-Imagn ImagesLatson is a high-usage scorer who thrives in big moments and has elevated her game throughout the tournament. She attacks off the dribble, draws fouls at an elite rate, and has the kind of composure under pressure that separates good players from great ones. Miles, on the other hand, is a triple-double threat whose playmaking ability extends far beyond her scoring output. She sees the floor at a different level, creates for teammates effortlessly, and has the offensive versatility to hurt defenses in many ways. Whoever wins this individual battle could very well determine who advances to the Final Four.and Miles, a dynamic duo capable of carrying the Frogs on any given night. The team relies on high-volume scoring and perimeter efficiency to counter the size disadvantages they face against bigger, more physical opponents. When their shots are falling and ball movement is flowing, TCU can hang with anyone in the country. There’s no hiding the difficulty of the task ahead. With South Carolina favored at a -1200 moneyline, TCU enters as a clear underdog. The 13.5-point spread and an 11.1% implied win probability indicate that oddsmakers don’t anticipate a close contest. For the Horned Frogs to pull off one of March’s biggest upsets, they’ll need near-flawless shooting and elite defense from start to finish.South Carolina isn't just chasing a Final Four berth; they're chasing history. Reaching the Final Four is the standard for South Carolina's program, and a win on Monday would send Dawn Staley's team to its sixth consecutive Final Four. The Gamecocks have been here many times before, and that tournament experience is one of South Carolina's greatest attributes. South Carolina Coach Dawn Staley waves to fans Monday, March 23, 2026, after the Gamecocks won in the NCAA Women's Basketball Tournament at Colonial Life Arena in Columbia, South Carolina. | Ken Ruinard / USA Today Network South Carolina / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images South Carolina's interior presence is expected to be the decisive factor in this matchup. Their paint dominance includes ranking second in the country with 47.2 paint points per game and 17th in fewest paint points allowed . The Gamecocks score 54.1% of their points in the paint. If TCU can't crash the offensive glass, South Carolina's superior depth will eventually beat the Horned Frogs down. TCU carries the weight of history into this contest. The Horned Frogs were absolutely dismantled by South Carolina last season,at Dickies Arena. The challenge for head coach Mark Campbell's squad Monday night is to prove that the game was an outlier and that history will not repeat itself.As TCU prepares for its biggest stage yet, Frog Fans will be watching closely from Fort Worth to Sacramento. If you're not making the trip, Rex's is hosting a watch party Monday night as the Horned Frogs chase a spot in the Final Four. Join the conversation before, during, and after the game on theAiden is a freshman at Texas Christian University majoring in Digital Culture and Data Analytics with a strong interest in sports and the numbers behind the game. While he has always been a big sports fan, he has developed a huge passion for sports analytics and how statistics can help explain what happens during a game. Aiden especially enjoys analyzing and covering men’s basketball statistics, looking at player performance, team trends, and the data that shapes game outcomes. As he begins his college career, he is eager to gain hands-on experience in sports media and analytics and hopes to get involved in opportunities that will help him build his skills and learn more about the industry. Aiden is excited to keep building his knowledge of sports analytics during his time at TCU and as he looks ahead to the future.
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