TCU comes off a bye week to face an injured and struggling Utah . However, they tackle the Utes on the road in one of college football's most difficult environments. Betting prediction for TCU at Utah.
. Utah brings a two-game losing streak to the contest and some bad news: starting quarterback Cameron Rising will again miss the season, his second straight year missed to injury. In response to the injury, TCU dropped from a +7 underdog to +4.5. The over/under sits at 49.5 points as of Thursday.TCU has an implied win probability of 37.3%
Appropriately pricing individual players in a market is a difficult task. According to the betting market, QB Cam Rising was worth between 2-3 points on the spread, indicated by the movement from +7 to +4.5 . The question begs,As a seventh-year former star QB, the initial answer might be, well duh. But let's dig a little deeper. With Rising in the lineup, Utah played the 71st-ranked defense in points per drive and the 65th-ranked defense .
Removing home field advantage–a serious advantage for Utah with Rice-Eccles Stadium at night being one of the best home environments in college football–the market suggests Utah is about 1.5-2 points better than TCU . That same TCU team that comes in on a 1-3 skid allowing 66 to SMU, a 35-point comeback to UCF, and losing outright to Houston .
Something has to give Saturday night. TCU fields a top-40 offense nationally while Utah fields a top-30 defense. We've seen evidence both of TCU not being able to score on better stop units and Utah giving up points to better offenses . So, which one gives?
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