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policy. Here is what to expect as the calendar turns to 2025 — and likely supercharged once President-elect Donald Trump takes office on Jan. 20, 2025, for a second, nonconsecutive term.
There are some major limitations to using reconciliation because of something known as the Byrd Rule. For instance, the provisions in the legislation must be budget-related and cannot include nonbudgetary items. So, moving tax rates up or down can be done, but adding in other policy changes would be outside the remit and could be shot down by the Senate parliamentarian.
Bill Hoagland, senior vice president at the Bipartisan Policy Center, said the big question with the tax policy legislation is how it will be paid for, considering the country’s growing deficits and national debt, which recently surpassed $36 trillion. In addition to all of the tax matters, the debt limit has been raised enough to last until January 2025. After that, the Treasury Department will begin to take “extraordinary measures” once again. Those could only be used so long until the “X-date,” which is when the Treasury would no longer be able to guarantee that it can pay its incoming obligations.
Additionally, Trump wants Congress to pass the Reciprocal Trade Act, a change that would give him the power to unilaterally impose tariffs of equal size placed by other countries on the U.S. The idea is that U.S. tariffs should be aligned with those of its trading partners.that a big determinant in how U.S. tariff policy will affect the economy comes down to the extent these tariffs actually happen versus how many are more of a threat.
If inflation stays stubbornly above the Fed’s preferred 2% goal or starts to trend back up, it could force the Fed to hold rates higher for longer or, in a worst-case scenario of growing inflation, even raise rates again.
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