An overview of what's going on in the tropics....
REMEMBER WHEN A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE IS APPROACHING: Taping windows is *not* recommended & will not keep glass from breaking. Instead close curtains & blinds. Realize the forecast cone is the average forecast error over a given time - out to 5 days - & *does not* indicate the width of the storm &/or where damage that might occur.
* Hurricane Franklin: Rip currents & an easterly swell at the beaches through Tue. while 1,000+ miles to the east of Jacksonville“Idalia” made landfall on the Florida Big Bend a little before 8am Wed. A Storm Surge WARNING: Englewood northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay ... St. Catherine’s Sound to South Santee River. A Hurricane WARNING: Middle of Longboat Key northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay ... Altamaha Sound Georgia to Edisto Beach South Carolina. A Tropical Storm WARNING: Chokoloskee northward to the Middle of Longboat Key ... West of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach ... Sebastian Inlet Florida to Surf City North Carolina. A Storm Surge WATCH: Bonita Beach northward to Englewood, including Charlotte Harbour ... Mouth of the St. Mary’s River to St. Catherine’s Sound Georgia ... Beaufort Inlet to Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina ... Neuse and Pamlico Rivers North Carolina. A Hurricane WATCH: Mouth of the St. Mary’s River to Altamaha Sound ... Edisto Beach to South Santee River Meanwhile...“Franklin” hit Haiti & especially the Dominican Republic with very heavy rain last Wed. The hurricane rapidly intensified to a high end Cat. 4 Monday when the storm finally found the “sweet spot” of the SW Atlantic but at least is not a threat to land. There will be some distant impacts on the U.S. east coast through midweek. Franklin will accelerate to the north/northeast, & there will be some impacts for Bermuda Tuesday but *not* a direct hit on the island. A turn toward the northeast over the NW Atlantic looks be sharp enough to keep most impacts east of Canada. And tropical depression #11 formed Tue. morning over the Central Atlantic but will not likely be around long. The area of disturbed weather near the Yucatan - Tropical depression #10 - strengthened into tropical storm “Idalia” late Sunday morning & the third hurricane of the ‘23 Atlantic season early Tuesday... & steadily strengthened overnight into early Wed . with a peak at Cat. 4 Tue. night before making landfall early Wed. - about 7:50am - during an eyewall replacement cycle. This cycle along with friction from land helped begin a slight & slow weakening trend while moving ashore. The eye will continue northeast across Southern Ga. through Wed. moving offshore near Charleston early Thu. shortly after midnight.- An average of 2-4″, locally more west of Highway 301.... 1″ from Highway 301 to the beaches. The fast movement of Idalia will keep amounts lower than what’s often experienced w/ tropical cyclones. The area has also been unseasonably dry the last few weeks so there is not an overly large amount of water “in the system” which will help some when it comes to fresh water flooding. In the end, water wont be a big deal for most neighborhoods, towns & cities.- averaging 30-50+ mph west of Highway 301 with gusts 65+ mph. Closer to I-75 - from Lake City to near & south of Waycross eastward to Nahunta to near & north of Brunswick - sustained winds near hurricane force of 60-70 mph can be expected with hurricane force gusts 75+ mph will be possible. From Highway 301 to the beaches of NE Fl., sustained winds Wed. averaging 25-40 mph with gusts 45+ mph, a few gusts 50-60+ mph at the coast. Direction: winds will be out of the south by early Wed. veering to out of the SW in the afternoon then out of the west & eventually NW by evening into the overnight. Bridges: local protocol is a bit wishy-washy to say the least regarding the threshold to close bridges in Duval Co. & surrounding areas. For the most part the threshold has always been sustained winds of 40 mph. But that’s not across the board & sometimes closing a bridge is based on sight or even feel. So the forecast - & real-time - winds may or may not translate into whether or not bridges are ultimately closed.of NE Fl.: windy with winds of 30-45 mph & gusts 50-60+ mph. There will be a high rip current risk enhanced by distant hurricane Franklin & an easterly swell. A full moon Wed. evening will also give an astronomical boost to surf.this should not be particularly severe for our beaches from an erosion standpoint . Seas will peak at an average ~6-9 feet Wed. with surf averaging 4-7 feet, locally higher. The best advice is to stay out of the ocean through at least Thu. but if you do insist on going in the water, always swim & surf with a buddy & as close to a lifeguard as possible. Winds will become offshore & “clean up” the surf by late Wed./Wed. night but with a continued high & dangerous risk of rip currents.is forecast to average 1-3 feet along the NE Fl. coast & St. Johns River... & 2-4 feet for the coast of Southeast Georgia .Based on the latest forecast... strong winds from the south will push water northward to downtown causing potential flooding, but not likely extensive & not to the extent of Nicole last year & certainly not to the extent of Irma in ‘17. Once the center of Idalia moves by & away, strong winds on the backside out of the west & northwest will help to “empty” some of the water to the east. All areas along the river & its tributaries - from Putnam Co. through Clay/St. Johns & Duval Co. will be subject to some flooding & backwash. Unique & varied topography along the river, intracoastal & coast can & will lead to localized higher surge & flooding. As a whole, storm surge is forecast to average 1-3 feet which - as just mentioned - is *below” the levels of Nicole & Ian last year & well below Irma in ‘17 & Matthew in ‘16.Idalia’s winds will be the biggest threat along with a few tornadoes. The most widespread & significant wind damage potential looks to be west of I-95 & especially west of Highway 301 to near I-75 north across much of SE Ga. so largely an inland storm. At least some power outages can be expected & may be fairly long lasting in some areas with highest likelihood for longer term & more widespread loss of power near & west of Highway 301 or well inland.Thursday after the passage of Idalia: I expect most roads, businesses & airports to be able to operate rather “normally” by Thursday [if they want to/choose to] across most of Northeast Florida along the I-95 corridor to the beaches. It doesappear damage will be widespread from Wednesday’s winds but there will be some downed trees & tree limbs, some power outages & some ponding of water though - again - water does not look to be a big issued with Idalia. Virtually all highways & interstates should be pretty clear rather quickly.will be west of Highway 301 & much of Southeast Ga. If traveling west or northwest to NW Florida, the Eastern Panhandle &/or Southern Ga., some highways may be impassable. These areas will be much closer to the center of Idalia & will correspondingly suffer more severe damage. And some of this heavier damage will include Waycross, Blackshear, Nahunta & Fargo, Ga. - all within the Action News Jax CBS47/Fox30 Action News Jax viewing area. REALIZE ALL THESE IMPACTS ARE BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS THAT WILL CHANGE TO AT LEAST SOME DEGREE... & UNDERSTAND IMPACTS WILL BE MUCH GREATER CLOSER TO LANDFALL . REMEMBER THAT THE FORECAST CONE ONLY INVOLVES THE EXPECTED PATH OF THE STORM. DON’T GET FIXATED ON THE CENTER & REALIZE IMPACTS FROM THE STORM WILL EXTEND FAR AWAY FROM THE CENTER.After meandering most of Sunday, Idalia turned northward, has organized & is starting to pick up its forward speed. With a core becoming established, Idalia will now be able to intensify. Idalia will turn more north/northeast - while accelerating - toward Florida with the Panhandle & upper west coast susceptible to a landfall as a Category 3 . *At this point*... a landfall on the far Eastern Panhandle or upper Big Bend seems to be the area to focus on. Overall forecast models are tightly clustered now & in good agreement.Idalia is forecast to turn more northeast by Wed. night then east/northeast moving off the coast of the Carolina’s Thursday.The Eastern Panhandle & much of the upper west coast of Florida is where landfall will occur. Weakening will then commence but will be slowed because of otherwise favorable meteorological conditions .Accelerating to the north/northeast into Wed. Highest impacts on Florida through Wed. evening depending, of course, on the exact track & intensity.while sea surface temps. & oceanic heat content are very warm , that alone will not necessarily result in a significant storm. Other factors have to be considered, especially wind shear & mid & upper level moisture which do become more favorable with time. So... moisture - plenty. There’s lots of moisture present. Upon approach to land followed by the landfall, dry continental air will have a tendency to wrap around the underside leaving a tropical cyclone heavily weighted on its north & northeast side at midweek following landfall. Moderate to strong shear out of the west has been decreasing. As Idalia approaches land, there will be some upper level ventilation thanks to a nearby trough of low pressure. In addition... Idalia will be moving in line with the mid/upper level wind vector so the effects of the shear should be lessened. With moisture remaining favorable, a hurricane is forecast at landfall - as strong as a Cat. 4 while strengthening all the way up to the Fl. hit on the coastline.The forecast is for Idalia to be a “major” hurricane before & at landfall. The biggest impacts will be from approximately the Central/Eastern Panhandle to the Big Bend to north of Tampa. There will be lots of folks traveling late in the week with Labor Day weekend just around the corner so stay up to date on the latest forecasts, but it does appear that Idalia will have cleared the U.S. by at least Fri. though may linger east of the Carolina’s but offshore into the weekend. Don’t focus too much on the center of the storm as impacts will be far away from the center point of Idalia including a storm surge possibly near half a foot for Tampa Bay. Once over the W. Atlantic, a loop back to the south & southwest will be possible next week, but Idalia looks to be a good deal weaker at that point.Peak storm surge forecast in feet above ground level - double digits in sparsely populated Big Bend area:Brighter colors indicate higher probabilities of winds greater than or equal to 39 mph. Realize any probability above zero is significant considering most days the probability is zero.Tallahassee radar:Water vapor loop. Blue color indicates dry mid & upper level air, white & green indicates high moisture levels:Oceanic heat content is pretty impressive, especially within a narrow ribbon from Cuba through Central to the Northern Gulf:over the Northern Caribbean becoming a powerful hurricane east of the Bahamas over the SW Atlantic making the sharp turn to the north. The combination of lessening shear plus strong upper level diffluence thanks to a trough of low pressure to the north with very warm water below helped intensify Franklin to a Cat. 4 Monday. There will be some impacts for Bermuda into Wed. as the eye moves by to the west & north but not a direct hit on the island. Franklin should take a sharp enough turn to the east to *not* have significant direct impacts on Canada with the possible exception of some wind + rough seas & surf for far Eastern Newfoundland & Labrador. Franklin will also be strong enough - while still well to the east of Florida - to produce an easterly swell at area beaches resulting in a heightened rip current risk all up & down the U.S. eastern seaboard through Wed. into at least Thu. A full moon will also add an astronomical boost to seas & surf. The forecast track is pretty straight forward with a well established alleyway across the Western Atlantic with Franklin accelerating over the next several days while maturing then bending rather sharply to the northeast.
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