An overview of what's going on in the tropics....
early Mon. This is a classic wave in that it formed from a complex of intense storms over Africa... encountered hostile conditions for days before finding more favorable conditions. The storm’s center has been aligning as Ian organizes & t’storms burst/pulse allowing Ian to reach hurricane intensity early Mon. As the storm gains some latitude & turns more north, ingredients are in place for the development of a significant tropical cyclone over the Northwest Caribbean & SE Gulf...
One should be careful about determining the threat to life & property based on the category of the storm & whether or not Ian is weakening. Dangerous impacts are imminent for a good part of Fl. It’s possible that the storm surge will be a category or so higher than what one might expect. So the ingredients are in place for the development of a major hurricane over the Caribbean &/or SE Gulf with very warm water including high oceanic heat content ... sufficient mid & upper level moisture... mostly low shear that will eventually be in concert with the storm’s movement . Shear does increase by mid to late next week but may be offset some by upper level ventilation & the fact that Ian should be well organized by then. In the end...
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