An overview of what's going on in the tropics....
” early Thu. but is expected to be short-lived. Having said that. No threat to any land areas.is moving west off the coast of Africa. This system will soon be “Katia” but should stay over the far Eastern Atlantic.
” early Thu. but is expected to be short-lived. Having said that... No threat to any land areas.is moving west off the coast of Africa. This system will soon be “Katia” but should stay over the far Eastern Atlantic.will move west off of Africa over the weekend. This wave has a good chance to develop over the main development region through next week & could become a textbook long track hurricane. There *COULD* be a threat to parts of the Caribbean &/or the U.S. in about 10-14 days but plenty of time to see how things - steering currents in particular - play out. But it is something to keep an eye on. Check out the upper oceanic heat content [tropical cyclone heat potential/TCHP] across the SW Atlantic, Gulf & Caribbean. The warmth is very deep. But keep in mind warm ocean temps. alone doesn’t necessarily equate to a “big” hurricane season but it’s obvious there is a lot of very warm water at great depths over the Caribbean & Gulf of Mexico:Averages below based on climatology for the Atlantic Basin for August:Saharan dust spreads west each year from Africa by the prevailing winds . Dry air - yellow/orange/red/pink. Widespread dust is indicative of dry air that can impede the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes “wanna’ be” waves will just wait until they get to the other side of - or away from - the plume then try to develop if other conditions are favorable. In my personal opinion, way too much is made about the presence of Saharan dust & how it relates to tropical cyclones. In any case, the peak of Saharan dust typically is in June & July.“Katia” is the next name on the Atlantic list . Historic storms are retired [Florence & Michael in ’18... Dorian in ’19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20, Ida in ‘21 & Fiona & Ian in ‘22]). In fact, this year’s list of names is rather infamous with “Katrina”, “Rita” & “Wilma” retired from the ‘05 list & “Harvey”, “Irma”,“Maria” & “Nate” from the ‘17 list. The WMO decided - beginning in 2021 - that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted . The naming of tropical cyclones began on a consistent basis in 1953. More on the history of naming tropical cyclones *Water vapor imagery : Deep oceanic heat content over the Gulf, Caribbean & deep tropical Atlantic. The brighter colors are expanding dramatically as we near the peak of the hurricane season.:Surface analysis of the Gulf:for 24, 48 & 72 hours respectively:
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