Take Five: From U.S.-China trade war quagmire to the potential risk of a global economic recession, here are world market themes for the week ahead
Britain’s election is less than a month away and with the two main parties set to release their election manifestos, one thing is for sure — both plan to spend big. The opposition Labour Party pledged on Friday to nationalise BT’s broadband network, proposing to fund that through extra tech sector taxes.
It has already suggested nationalising water and utility firms, an exercise that S&PGlobal estimates could cost 160 billion pounds. The Conservatives, favourites to win, are also wooing voters, with the biggest public service spending increases in 15 years and plans to spend up to 3% of annual output on infrastructure — almost double historical averages. Under any election outcome, state spending looks set to rise to levels unseen since the 1970s, predicts think-tank Resolution Foundation. And there’s only one place the government can find the money — bond markets. UK public debt stands around 80% of GDP; below U.S. and Japanese levels but higher spending plus the Brexit hit to growth mean that ratio can only rise. Government 10-year borrowing costs have almost doubled since early-September and could move higher, especially if Britain’s rating is cut. Moody’s recently cut the rating outlook, citing among other things, rising public debt.
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