Taiwan appears to be distancing itself from China in recent months, as military activities around the island intensify amid heightened U.S.-China tensions and the coronavirus pandemic.
"Everything else having failed, Xi may therefore feel compelled to put a premium on a military strategy in the Taiwan Strait," said Cole in the report.
"The two pillars of Beijing's strategy toward Taiwan, coercion and incentivization, have failed to arrest ongoing trends in Taiwan supporting independence and a democratic form of governance," Cole wrote. "Everything else having failed, the Chinese leadership could become more inclined to use force against the object of its desire."
Chinese premier Li Keqiang left out the word "peaceful" when he referred to Beijing's perennial desire to "reunify" Taiwan with the mainland. It broke with a decades-old practice, and was noted by China watchers.The situation is "delicate" as Taiwan is an area of "core interest" to China, Schell told CNBC. Beijing will not be willing to accord any compromise or flexibility when it comes to the position of Taiwan, he added.
The role of the U.S. also adds to the situation. Washington does not have formal diplomatic ties with Taipei but is
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