Even if Taiwan’s upcoming election doesn’t go Beijing’s preferred way, a Chinese invasion remains highly unlikely. But an expected deterioration in China-Taiwan relations is bad news for both sides.
n January, Taiwan will hold a presidential election. China’s leaders hope former New Taipei City mayor Hou Yu-ih, candidate of the Kuomintang opposition party will win the job, but the smart money is on current Vice President William Lai, who represents the incumbent Democratic Progressive Party . Lai and his party favor a tougher approach to Beijing.
If Lai wins, Beijing will become much more confrontational in the coming months. A Chinese invasion of Taiwan remains, but an expected deterioration in China-Taiwan relations is bad news for both sides, and for any forces caught between them. For now, Beijing is wielding both sticks and carrots to influence Taiwan’s voters. Earlier this month, China’s navy conducted its largest-ever military exercises in the western Pacific, but China has also announced a plan to develop China’s Fujian province into a “demonstration zone” for integrated economic development with Taiwan. It’s a proposal that looks an awful lot like one recently floated by Hou that would connect China’s Xiamen city with Taiwan’s Kinmen islands.
Meanwhile, Taiwan’s DPP leaders are looking beyond the election toward the more threatening approach from China. Their latest pushback comes in the form of a new defense report they hope will make China think harder about a future invasion. On September 12, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense released its “,” which details the lessons Taiwan has learned from Russia’s war on Ukraine.
China has also learned lessons from the war in Ukraine. Its leaders recognize that an enemy fighting for its land can make territorial gain prohibitively expensive for the invader, and that Western powers are more likely to align than to divide in the face of naked military aggression.
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