Arsenal capitalized on Man City dropping points for the first time in four games.
The 2025–26 Premier League title race took another massive turn midweek, with leaders Arsenal widening the gap atop the standings following an unexpected poor result at home from nearest chasers Manchester City.
at home against relegation candidate Nottingham Forest—snapping a four-game winning streak that saw them close the gap atop the table.’s dropped points could have massive ramifications in the title race, with Mikel Arteta’s side now comfortably in the driver’s seat entering the climactic stretch of the campaign.predicts the Premier League title race will unfold in the coming weeks following City’s blunder, as well as other important battles for positioning in England’s top flight.the overwhelming title favorites heading into the midweek action, and Wednesday’s result combinations only strengthened the supercomputer’s faith in Arteta’s side. The Gunners are expected to finish with 84 points, the same amount Liverpool collected a season ago to crown themselves champions.’s hiccup against Forest saw them go seven points adrift of Arsenal. Although City have a game in hand and Arteta’s side still have to visit the Etihad later in the season,So significant was City’s midweek stumble in Opta’s eyes that Arsenal have increased their title odds by 10%. Following the weekend results where both sides won, Arsenal were given a 82.71% chance of winning the league to City’s 17.25%. Days later and after just a two-point swing in the Gunners’ favor, Arsenal’s odds have risen to 92.84%, whilst the Citizens have seen theirs drop to 7.16%.The Premier League is all but guaranteed to send its top-five finishers to the Champions League in 2026–27. With two of the five tickets available reserved for the title contenders, it’s looking like it will be a four-team race for the remaining three—and, it’s Liam Rosenior’s Blues who are expected to miss out on Europe’s top-flight club competition next season.fell to 10-men Newcastle United with a stoppage time dagger . Still, the Red Devils have been very good since the turn of the year and have a 56.69% chance of returning to the Champions League after a two-season absence, finishing fourth just one point behind Villa.for the still reigning holders. The Reds had better than a 50% chance of making the Champions League just a few days ago; now, they’re still expected to finish fifth, but those odds have shrunk to 40.61%.Champions League dreams were re-ignited in their dominant display at Villa Park. The Blues cut the gap to all three teams ahead of them and doubled their European top-flight odds from 16.22% to 34.70% in a blink of an eye. Liverpool still have the edge to finish fifth ahead of them, but only by a microscopic 0.78 point margin, perare the only other team the supercomputer gives any remote chance of shaking up the order and making the Champions League, even if it’s just a measly 4.02%.also answered the call, winning away at Fulham to go level on points with the Tricky Trees, still sitting in the relegation places but within touching distance of an escape.fell to Sunderland at home on Tuesday in a result that they could eventually regret considering the results a day later. Leeds are still in 15th place and are expected to avoid relegation, withgiving them just a 7.89% chance of catastrophe come May. Still, they are now just three points clear of the drop zone.. If Igor Tudor’s side fall to Crystal Palace on Thursday, they’ll be just one point above West Ham in the relegation fight. The reigning Europa League holders currently just have 7.64% relegation odds—yet those could rise to panic levels if Spurs fail to win for the first time in 2026 against Palace.at one point were in contention to become the worst side in Premier League history, but after snatching results against Arsenal, Aston Villa and Liverpool in recent weeks, they now have 16 points, just three behind. In any case, both sides aren’t predicted to make a great escape, with the pair having greater than 99% odds of playing in the Championship next season.Roberto Casillas is a Sports Illustrated FC freelance writer covering Liga MX, the Mexican National Team & Latin American players in Europe. He is a die hard Cruz Azul and Chelsea fan.
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